Steve and all,
I can only guess the figures in the posting above should have an "m" in front of them so it represents "million".
If this were to happen as soon as, my prediction would be that MCP would carry the day, I will tell you why I think so, musathamange mwazi kaye: -
Of all the parties represented in Parliament today, MCP has had the most stable MPs; there have been very very few movements except for a few cases like the Kainjas...the electors of MCP MPs will have to reinforce this good behaviour of their MPs - sticking to what MCP stands for.
That said, MCP's leader has been around for a long time and all he knows is MCP, the only time I can remember he kind of showed a rare breed of instability was when he openly supported the open terms/3rd term bills "drama" when Muluzi's term of office was coming to its close...but he quickly retreated because he "listened to the voice of reason within his own party and he sensed what a political blunder that was going to be." (To digress a bit, sometimes I think he supported the UDF machinations at that time because he thought and believed that MCP was in a position of wrestling power back from UDF and so he was going to be the one enjoying the fruits of open terms for Malawi's presidents or indeed three terms running, after all that is what he was used to when the Lion was in control of the reigns of power in Malawi).
Thirdly, MCP's strong base is in the Central Region and it is the least affected by unstable MPs, JZU knows how to play regional politics so much that he has failed completely to make sound in-roads in the South as well as the North and he seems to care very little about this and this consolidates his power for the following reasons: -
The South will have 2 or 3 giants in the front line...a probable giant from UDF, a probable giant from DPP (BwM has declared that he is going to stand again) and another giant from these "brief-case parties"...you can not rule out people like Vincent Gwandangulube Chakuamba (kodi ndi Vincent munthu uja eti?), you can not predict the political behaviour of people like BJ if the UDF do not pick him up as their front runner and you never know what Jimmy-Koreia Mpatsa might want to come up with in liaison with Justin Chimera Malewezi...so basically, there will be running battles in the South between UDF and DPP...there will be a fight and a bloody one there and as DPP and UDF fight over the South, JZU will be calling the shots in the Central region.
The North will be a tricky one...until about 4 - 5 months ago, DPP might have been taking a strong grip on the region but I do not think it is the case any longer...the people of Karonga and Chitipa might find themselves confused on who cares about their roads and certainly they may find DPP equally deceptive on the "Roads-project" in that part of the country. The signs of AFORD's revival do not spell good news either for most of the parties...Rumphi will also be a very very tricky one, the DPP President not having attended the burial ceremony of one Chakufwa "Simbiyamoto" Chihana, the people there might not find "comfort" in the same, CC was one of Rumphi's respected children and he still commanded a lot of respect there (I dare say). AKB, should he choose to run again, might, arguably, control Nkhata-bay and Ralph Kasambara having been treated the way he has been by the Government, might want to help out in keeping DPP at bay (I am just speculating here, I do not know) and his impact should not be overlooked...Mzimba might be the liberal one where voters might want some persuasion and convincing as to who to vote for.
My analysis for the North in general, makes it a very difficult region to predict in its voting pattern but I can definitely rule out any significant impact coming from MCP, UDF might control Likoma and a small part of Nkhata-bay because of the Neuro-Surgeon turned politician, Nga Ntafu. The North, in general, might be able to vote for different people of different parties just like they did in 2004 because as we speak, there is no big big politician making significant impact in as far influencing the electorate is concerned.
Goodall Gondwe should have been the man for DPP, but the Government has not helped him in, once again, the Karonga-Chitipa road falling in between the cracks of the politics of funding.
That is my 2-tambala line of thought if we went to the polls in the next year or so, the pattern might change if we maintained 2009 for elections, some political groupings might have time to consolidate their grips on certain areas of the country, others might want to go to political beds in partnership etc.
Gonani bwino nonse.
Isaac
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6 comments:
I have read your comment. The picture you have now is not correct. MCP cannot come back to power unless JT steps down. Dausi has resigned. THis is an indication that something somwhere is wrong. THe poeple want somebody who can deliver as BWM is doing. THank you.
Dausi? Did the man even have a seat in parliament? His defection has no significant impact on the party at all. 2009 MCP woye!
Iam also of the same view to asy that some parties, in this case the once mighty, MCP, has outlived it's span of popularity. unless one man from my home village, Dedza and that's JZU steps down, then the party won't have a chance of ruling me.
Ingie Kalebe
I think each one of you is right depending research one had over the BWM's administration as well as political ground as to why BM is being feared to stand as top running mate for Yellowgroup (UDF).
Lets hope we should havest more yields so that we shall vote Titakhuta.
Kumanda Aublic Shood
Its unfortunate that some people are shallow minded to think that Malawians can forget the evil that John Tembo and MCP did to our beautiful country, one thing you must know is that JZU is a rejected person, he will never be the president of the republic of Malawi, you remember the late Dr H. Kamuzu Banda, opted to give the leadership of MCP to former prisoner Gwanda Chakwamba, do you know why First President of Malawi did that? JZU has blood in his hands ask Bakili Muluzi he will tell you more on that, as one of the people I have lived and witnessed what the tree governments have done thus, Kamuzu, Bakili and Bingu, I can say come 2009, Bingu will carry the day and finish his 2nd term. God Bless Malawi!!
bingu,should never allow certain things to happen in malawi.more especailly former 'dudes' coming back into action.let them retair and have more quality time with their wifes.
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